The Martin Luther King Jr. (MLK) holiday weekend typically brings a unique cadence to the cinema landscape. As cinemas across the nation prepare for audiences seeking entertainment during this long weekend, analysts provide insight into the films vying for viewers’ attention. This year, however, the landscape appears less vibrant, leading to predictions of a rather subdued box office that could hinge on the unexpected success of the R-rated comedy, One of Them Days, from Sony Pictures.
Since the pandemic’s onset, the movie industry has seen fluctuating attendance patterns, with traditional box office expectations altered significantly. On this MLK weekend, the top-grossing film has historically earned over $33 million. However, analysts indicate that this threshold is in jeopardy, as films like Universal and Blumhouse’s Wolf Man are projected to garner significantly less—around $20 million over the four-day period. This discrepancy raises questions about audience engagement and content quality, as the recovery trajectory for theatrical releases continues to stabilize.
Wolf Man, while priced modestly at approximately $25 million (before marketing), is expected to debut with around $20 million this weekend. Directed by Leigh Whannell, the film has had a mixed reception, reflected in its Rotten Tomatoes score—55% from critics and 67% from audiences. Comparatively, Whannell’s previous offering, The Invisible Man, boasted a much higher critical approval rating, commanding attention with a 91% fresh grade.
The early box office previews did yield $1.4 million from its Thursday showings, slightly outperforming Lionsgate’s Den of Thieves but falling short of the numbers seen by The Invisible Man. The film features notable talents like Julia Garner and Christopher Abbott, yet the mediocrity of reviews could dent its potential success, despite some level of awareness among moviegoers.
In stark contrast, One of Them Days, starring Keke Palmer and SZA, seeks to carve its niche as the first female-led R-rated comedy featuring Black leads since 2017’s Girls Trip. With a relatively promising critical score of 96% and audience reactions of 94%, the film presents a vibrant alternative for viewers seeking a comedic escape. It follows the misadventures of best friends Dreux (Palmer) and Alyssa (SZA) as they try to salvage their friendship and financial situation after a devastating blow to their rent budget.
Despite these accolades, projections for One of Them Days remain modest, expecting a three-day opening in the range of $7 million to $9 million. This figure seems a far cry from the early hype surrounding similar projects like Girls Trip, which opened to an impressive $31 million following a robust preview performance. This raises the pressing question: why is One of Them Days not projected to perform better despite its solid feedback?
Tracking services suggest that One of Them Days is facing challenges in awareness and audience interest. With a notably low unaided awareness at below 1%, the film’s potential audience base may not be as readily engaged as needed for a strong opening. In comparison, Wolf Man benefits from high awareness and interest, even if its reviews are underwhelming. This juxtaposition highlights how effective marketing strategies and audience perception play crucial roles in a film’s performance.
As the MLK weekend unfolds, audiences and industry insiders will closely watch the box office results of these two films. While Wolf Man may find an initial larger audience due to its established brand recognition, it faces the risk of reduced momentum if negative word-of-mouth spreads. On the flip side, One of Them Days holds the potential for a surprising outcome should it resonate positively with viewers, driven by its vibrant portrayal of friendship and humor.
In a box office environment heavily influenced by post-COVID realities, the stakes remain high as studios release films that carry not just the weight of entertainment, but also representation and cultural significance. As the weekend progresses, the results will reflect not just box office numbers, but the evolving tastes and expectations of modern audiences.